U.S. MILITARY CLAIMS SURGE REDUCES ATTACKS; IRAQIS FEEL OTHERWISE

Gen. Ray Odierno claims that attacks in Baghdad have falled from 32 to 12 since the start of 2007, more than 50%.

But is this the right metric to use? Would it not be better to compare August 2007 to August 2006 and see if there is indeed a drop. For example, AP reports the numbers of Iraqi civilian deaths (not limited to Baghdad) and show a large jump up in comparing August 2006 to August 2007. See the charts on Talking Points Memo.

Also the BBC reports that most Iraqis think they are less safe and that the surge has made life worse:

"[A] recent BBC/ABC poll of Iraqis found about 70% believe security had deteriorated since the US surge.

"According to the poll, more than two-thirds said that in terms of security and the conditions for political dialogue, reconstruction and economic development the surge had made things worse. "