NIE'S COMMENTS ON IRAN SAY VERY LITTLE

I want to do some "statutory interpretation" on the plain meaning of the words contained in one paragraph on Iran in the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released several days ago. Here's the paragraph:

"Over the next year Tehran, concerned about a Sunni reemergence in Iraq and US efforts
to limit Iranian influence, will continue to provide funding, weaponry, and training to
Iraqi Shia militants. Iran has been intensifying aspects of its lethal support for select
groups of Iraqi Shia militants, particularly the JAM, since at least the beginning of 2006.
Explosively formed penetrator (EFP) attacks have risen dramatically."

First, the use of "Tehran." Are we talking here about the government of Iran? If so, why not specifically state that's who is meant? Is this an attempt by the U.S. intelligence agencies to imply something that they don't want to say outright? Or an attempt to cover their backs if accused of loosely accusing the government of Iran? "Oh, we did not say the Iranian government, we just implied it was forces based in Tehran."

Second, the futuristic verb "will continue." This implies someone has provided "funding, weaponry and training to Iraqi Shia militants." Well, where is the evidence for such "providing." Why has there not been any proof presented in the past? All we have are charges by Bush and the U.S. military that the government of Iran is providing arms and training. Where is proof? So far, no proof, just accusations.

Third, the word "weaponry." Do we mean pistols or rifles? Do we mean explosive devices? Do we mean RPGs? And if any of these meanings is meant, how many weapons? Ten, 100, 1,000 or 10,000? Again, the word "weaponry" is so broad, it means nothing.

Fourth, the word "training." Has anybody been captured in Iraq who confesses to have been in a training camp run by Iranians? If so, where is that person? How long was the training? What did it consist of? Who exactly were the Iranians? Were they clan members, relatives or official Iranian government employees?

Fifth, the sentence, "Iran has been intensifying aspects of its lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants . . ." What does the word "intensifying" mean? It implies that the government of Iran has been stepping up supplying weapons and training to Shiite militants, but its premise rests on the same unsubstantiated charges discussed above.

Sixth, "lethal support." Again, where are the weapons and other lethal devices supplied by Iran?To date, all we ever see are explosive devices that could have just as well been manufactured in Egypt, Jordan or even in some basement in Baghdad.

Seventh, the sentence, "Explosively formed penetrator (EFP) attacks have risen dramatically." This would appear to be true given the increasing number of U.S. casualties from road-side bombs and other explosive devices. Note however, that this sentence is tacked right at the end of the paragraph on Iranian influence. Is the NIE saying here that the government of Iran is increasing its supply of EFPs? Again, it gives the intelligence agencies an aspect of deniability if someone challenges them as to whether they mean the Iranian government is responsible. Analyzed carefully as to what these words say, they don't say that the government of Iran has provided an increased supply of EFPs, merely that EFP attacks have risen dramatically.

This paragraph of the NIE tells us nothing. All it does is repeat the unsubstantiated charges and innuendo that George W. Bush and Dick Cheney have been putting out over the past several years, as a prelude to justifying initiating military action against Iran.