SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN ARE INEFFECTIVE, COUNTERPRODUCTIVE

Juan Cole in his Informed Comment gives cogent arguments why U.S. sanctions against Iran will never work. Furthermore, Cole dismisses, as I do, any positive benefit from a military strike against Iran. Obama, forget sanctions. Don't even think of military bombing. We need to negotiate with Iran and discuss more than just its nuclear program.

Writes Cole:

"The Obama administration is now moving tighten economic sanctions on Iran, as an alternative to a more direct approach. These measures include pressuring countries and firms not to buy Iranian petroleum and gas; pressuring them not to sell gasoline to Iran; and attempting to make it difficult for Iranian banks to interface with the world economic system.

"While these measures could impose costs on Iran, these costs can easily be borne by the country, and more especially by the regime."

Sanctions hardly work. They have not worked in Cuba and not have disturbed Fidel Castro's grip on power. They did not work in Iraq. And they will not work in Iran. Sanctions just raise the hackles on the backs of Iranians who would surely resent an outside nation (i.e., the U.S.) trying to force their government to change its nuclear development policy.

Observes Cole:

"Very few sanctions regimes have actually produced regime change or altered regime behavior. The US could not even accomplish this goal with regard to a small island 90 miles off its shores, Cuba. That an oil giant half way around the world with a population of 70 million that is as big as Spain, France and Germany can be effectively bludgeoned with sanctions is not very likely.

"The US needs to engage in comprehensive security talks with Iran, in hopes of striking a grand bargain. Because as Admiral Mullen rightly says, there are no good military options here."

I agree fully with Juan Cole. Both sanctions and military action are ineffective and counter-productive.

We need to sit down and talk with Iranian leaders. And we cannot continue to insist that we first come to an agreement on Iranian nuclear development before we will talk on other issues. Such pre-conditions are silly, without rational basis, and are insulting to Iranians, as they would be to anyone. By talking with Iranian leaders, we show respect to Iran and the Iranian people that we respect them because they are Iranians, a great people with thousands of years of culture and tradition.

U.S. AERIAL BOMBINGS KILL MANY CIVILIANS IN IRAQ

Thanks to Juan Cole in his Informed Comment today for pointing me to this important study by Iraq Body Count reporting on the large number of civilian casualties, mostly women and children, killed in U.S. bombing raids.

The New England Journal of Medicine published a new study on fatalities among women and children in Iraq as a result of the U.S. prosecuting the war there. The study, in conjunction with Iraq Body Count, is authored by Madelyn Hsiao-Rei Hicks, M.D., M.R.C.Psych., Hamit Dardagan, Gabriela Guerrero Serdán, M.A., Peter M. Bagnall, M.Res., John A. Sloboda, Ph.D., F.B.A., and Michael Spagat, Ph.D.

Write the authors:

"In events with at least one Iraqi civilian victim, the methods that killed the most civilians per event were aerial bombings (17 per event), combined use of aerial and ground weapons (17 per event), and suicide bombers on foot (16 per event). Aerial bombs killed, on average, 9 more civilians per event than aerial missiles (17 vs. 8 per event). Indeed, if an aerial bomb killed civilians at all, it tended to kill many. It seems clear from these findings that to protect civilians from indiscriminate harm, as required by international humanitarian law (including the Geneva Conventions),4 military and civilian policies should prohibit aerial bombing in civilian areas unless it can be demonstrated — by monitoring of civilian casualties, for example — that civilians are being protected."

JUAN COLE POINTS OUT SOME OF CHENEY'S UNTRUTHS

Here's another good post by Juan Cole in his Informed Comment on Dick Cheney's baseless statement that "we have achieved almost everything we started out to do in Iraq."

Does Cheney think that the deaths of close to one million Iraqis represents victory of the Bush/Cheney foreign policy?

Or that 4,000+ American soldiers lost their lives in the foolish adventure that did not have to be. Is this something Cheney is proud of and considers worthwhile and an accomplishment? Not to mention the other 40,000 American troops maimed, blinded or left permanently disabled.

Or consider the fractious nature of Iraqi politics, ready to break out at any time into a bloody civil war, where the Sunnis dislike the Kurds, and they both hate the Shias. If one of the aims of the Bush/Cheney occupation was to create a stable society, their goal is way off in the distant future.

Cole brings up the 4 million Iraqis left homeless or displaced by Bush/Cheney war mongering, including those stranded in Syria and Jordan. Surely when Cheney claims that he and Bush achieved their goals, he cannot mean all the children out of school or all the widows eking out a threadbare existence for their families.

Writes Cole:

"Some 2.7 million are internally displaced inside Iraq. A couple hundred thousand are cooling their heels in Jordan. And perhaps a million are quickly running out of money and often living in squalid conditions in Syria. Cheney's war has left about 15% of Iraqis homeless inside the country or abroad. That would be like 45 million American thrown out of their homes."

ISRAEL'S ATTACK PUTS U.S. IN DANGER

Thanks to Juan Cole in his Informed Comment today for pointing this out: the U.S. puts itself in danger by blithely supporting Israel's attack on the Palestinians in Gaza. One of the rationales for the 9/11 hijackers was to punish the U.S. for its support of Israel and its policies against the Palestinians.

Writes Juan Cole:

"The outbreak of hostilities affects Americans, since al-Qaeda hit New York and the Pentagon in some important part over the Israeli occupation of the Palestinians. The airstrikes and large death toll also present a challenge to the incoming Obama administration, which may find peace-making more difficult now."

The rest of the world, including the European Union and the United Nations, condemns the Israeli attack as disproportionate. Having failed to kill off the Palestinians by starvation, fuel and basic resources blockade, preventing Palestinians from leaving Gaza for essential medical treatment, shooting at Palestinian youth who happen to wander to close to the border, now Israel decides to send in the warplanes with bombs and missiles.

Yet people like that small minded republican pro Cuban blockade Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fl) are quick to express their full approval for Israel's war crimes. And Bush and Rice put the blame for Israel's attack on the victims, Hamas. No matter that over 200 people are now dead or that Israel specifically targeted the Gaza police force, the Republicans mindlessly express their support for Israel and its lethal actions. No wonder most of the Arab world is outraged by American actions.

SEN. TED KENNEDY IS IRREPLACEABLE, WE WISH HIM SPEEDY RECOVERY

Our wishes to Senator Ted Kennedy for a speedy and safe recovery.

Juan Cole in Informed Comment remarks on the role Ted Kennedy plays in pushing back against AIPAC and those neo-con supporters of Israel who want to take away funding for Middle Eastern studies at American universities.

Writes Juan Cole:

"Kennedy has been among the more effective legislators of his generation and has helped make the lives of most Americans better. He has been a friend of higher education and stood against attempts by the Israel lobby to defund or censor Middle East studies at US universities. You can't think of anyone who could step into his shoes in the latter regard, and certainly not . . . . Hillary Clinton."

However, the last thing we need is for that phony self-appointed High Priest of the U.S., George W. Bush, to release a statement saying how he and Laura are "praying" for Ted Kennedy and "asking God" to restore his health. Please, Mr. Bush, stop your sanctimonious politicizing and religious posturing.

FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF BUSH'S "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" SPEECH

Today, May 1st, is the fifth anniversary of George W. Bush's "Mission Accomplished" speech. A must read is Juan Cole in Informed Comment on other things Bush said then in his speech.

Here is the text of Bush's speech.

AL-ZAWAHIRI CONDEMNS IRAN FOR MAKING DEALS WITH AMERICANS

George Bush and Dick Cheney continue their militaristic bluster towards Iran. Notwithstanding the report of the N.I.E. that said that Iran does not have a weapons program, our leaders seem intent on picking a fight before they leave office in January 2008.

Yet what do they think when Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the no. 2 man in Al Qaeda, comes out and criticizes Iran and Iraqi Shiites for dealing with the Americans? How long will it take Bush, Cheney, Bolton and the other conservative Iran haters to cease their war drums and recognize the truth in "The enemy of my enemy is my friend"?

Juan Cole has translated Al-Zawahiri's recent statements on his blog Informed Comment. Here are some excerpts of Al-Zawahiri's disparaging comments about Iran according to Cole:

"Al-Zawahiri also criticizes Iran's recognition of the "agent government in Kabul" immediately after it was established and criticizes it for the help it provided for the Americans during its invasion of Afghanistan. . . .

"Al-Zawahiri says: "With regard to Iraq, Iran achieved an agreement with the Americans before the latter's entry into Iraq. The agreement provided for partitioning Iraq. The Shiite militias trained, funded, and armed by Iran for years advanced violently and quickly into Iraq following the collapse of the Saddam regime. They were merged into the Iraqi Army and other Iraqi security services. They were and remain the Crusader occupier's paws used to strike at Muslims in Iraq.

"Despite the repeat of the slogans death to America, death to Israel by Iran, we have not heard a single fatwa from a single Shiite religious authority inside or outside of Iran urging jihad against the Americans in Iraq or Afghanistan. As a matter of fact, Rafsanjani has made a statement expressing respect for the wishes of the Iraqi agents of Iran regarding the continued presence of US troops in Iraq."

"Then, Rafsanjani is shown making a statement to this effect. He is also shown saying that the Iranians will not take the lead in eliminating Israel.

"Al-Zawahiri adds: "The statement made by Ahmadinezhad regarding the elimination of Israel is indicative of unsubstantiated propaganda. This is because had he been sincere in his desire to eliminate Israel, he would not have shared with it membership of the United Nations, whose Charter provides for respecting the sovereignty of all UN members and their territorial integrity.""